Sunday, November 2, 2014

Int. Science - BRICS Prediction Blogpost

       In order to truly understand and predict the future energy situation in China one must understand the impacting factors that drive change in the situation. Analyzing information on China’s situation in 2035 one clearly see that there are 3 main factors that really could alter the situation by 2050 they are; the Chinese middle-class’ rise in wealth, the building taxes on Co2 and other emissions of conventional sources (non-renewable resources), and shale gas availability and extraction possibility in the future. Using these factors and seeing China’s current and predicted energy state in 2035 I can be foresee a significant drop in coal emission and use by 2050. 

      Further elaborating on the factors above, the rise in wealth of the Chinese middle-class triggers a signifiant spike in awareness and consciousness derived from citizens putting their minds less on placing food on the table and more on the future of the children. This leads to the people being more conscious about their country’s current situation. In China for example, the government is seeing a rise in hospitals visits for lung complications due to pollution in the air, as the people get richer they begin to notice this more and more and begin to truly press for a cut on coal generation thus impacting how much coal is being emitted. 

       As for taxes China is seeing a 6% import tariff for every ton of coal being used for energy generation this can lead to two alternate resolutions the first being that China will begin to incorporate laws such as Chile did by taxing the companies that generate the energy using coal or the second being that China will begin to import cleaner washed coal due to unhealthy SOx NOx levels (amount of sulfates and nitrates emitted).

       Finally, shale gas availability also could impact China future significantly. Currently, China is the country with the most available shale gas in the world the only problem is extraction, I can predict that with the advancement of technologies in the near future could lead to a safer and cheaper extraction method.

       Now that I have stated what could well be the future of China in 2050 there are a few action that China could take in the future to both cut down on Co2 emissions and expand renewable source usage. These are; pick a solid unchangeable limit number on Co2 emissions and a plan to achieve that number including the establishment of a renewable portfolio standard, reach an agreement to meet that emission limit with other developed economies, and finally to double investments in renewable source research and development in order to stimulate the development of new renewable resources. Using these action China can expect a greener, less-polluted future bringing hope to their concerned middle-class and future generation in China.



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